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NBA Betting Model

NBA Betting With Elo Ratings

Every NBA team rated. Every injury quantified. See where our model disagrees with the market and find edges in tonight's games.

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How Our NBA Model Works

Elo Ratings (K=20)

All 30 NBA teams rated with a K-factor of 20, optimized for the 82-game season. Recency-weighted so recent performance matters more.

Injury Adjustments

Top-3 scorer out = -20 Elo points each. Real-time ESPN data with status multipliers (Out: 100%, Doubtful: 70%, Questionable: 15%).

Edge Detection

We compare our Elo probability to market odds. When the gap is 3%+, that's a potential value bet. Minimum 3-point margin for spread picks.

NBA-Specific Factors

Beyond Elo ratings, we capture NBA-specific context that affects game outcomes.

Back-to-Back Games

-4%

Teams playing their second game in two nights see a measurable performance drop. We adjust probability accordingly.

Home Court Advantage

+55 Elo

NBA home teams win ~56-58% of games. We add 55 Elo points at prediction time to account for this.

Rest Advantage

+1.5%/day

Each extra rest day adds 1.5% to win probability, capped at +4.5%. Rest matters in the NBA grind.

Travel Fatigue

Up to -2.5%

Cross-country trips carry a -2.5% adjustment. Shorter trips see -0.5% to -1.5% depending on distance.

Rivalry Boost

+2.5%

Lakers vs Celtics, Knicks vs Nets, and other intense rivalries get a boost for elevated intensity.

Playoff Implications

+2%

Must-win games for playoff positioning get a +2% boost. Eliminated teams see a -3% penalty.

NBA Betting FAQ

How do Elo ratings work for NBA betting?
Each NBA team starts with a 1500 Elo rating. Wins increase the rating, losses decrease it. We use a K-factor of 20, recency weighting with 0.95 decay, and +55 home court advantage. The rating difference between two teams translates directly to a win probability using the Elo expected score formula.
How do NBA injuries affect Elo ratings?
We quantify NBA injuries using real-time ESPN data. A top-3 scorer being out costs -20 Elo points per player. Status multipliers apply: Out = 100%, Doubtful = 70%, Questionable = 15%. These adjustments are applied at prediction time, not stored in the actual Elo rating.
What NBA situational factors does the model consider?
Back-to-back games (-4%), rest advantage (+1.5% per extra day), travel fatigue (up to -2.5%), recent form, rivalry boosts (+2.5% for intense matchups), playoff implications (+2% for must-win games), and eliminated team penalties (-3%).
Do you cover NBA player props?
Yes. We analyze individual player performance using rolling averages with recency weighting, opponent adjustments, and pace factors. We cover points, rebounds, assists, and three pointers made.

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Every NBA game analyzed. Every injury quantified. Full math shown.

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